The London Vintners exchange just published survey results from merchants around the globe with predictions for the Livex 100 Index for 2017 and according to this survey the bulls are in town.
What the survey says
-Optimists expect the market to increase 31%
-Pessimists expect the market to drop 15%
-On average, merchants around the globe expect the fine wine index to increase around 7% this year.
-Last years predictions were 5.4% but the market actually performed at 24.8%
‘The Livex 100 represents the price movement of 100 of the most sought-after fine wines on the secondary market.’
My prediction for the market this year is 10%, for several reasons:
-Since the wine market is in a recovery phase from a four year downturn it has the bulls behind it.
-The stock market remains bullish and a continuation of aggressive growth will force a correction this year or next year. When the stock market does have it’s correction, there will be money flooding into lower risk investments and fine wine will be at the top of any prudent investors list, especially as its in recovery and a rising market.
-Psychology is at play here, back in 2011 wine prices reached record levels and the market complained prices were too high when the market dropped. However moving forward 6 years people are less likely to bawk as the market reaches those price levels again. As they become acceptable levels in 2017/2018 then the market can go higher.
Have a great weekend!