First Growths Moving Towards 2011 High?
In February, the Liv-ex 1000 index has reached another record high for the 7th month in a row! As we clearly recall, the index has reached it’s peak in 2011 when the market was at its highest speculated by the Chinese and ultimately started a descent in 2011 and 2012 before eventually reaching its bottom in 2014.
Other indices have been doing very well too but not reached their peaks respectively. The Liv-ex 100 is continuously rising but has yet to reach it’s peak.. The Liv-ex 50 which charts the daily price movements of all the first growth wines, is still 22.8% below it’s peak in 2011.
If we take a look closely at the chart below, we can see that some first growths have closed the gap or even exceeded the 2011 prices.
As seen on the chart, Mouton Rothschild have some vintages such as 2003, 2004, 2007 and 2011 that are marginally higher than their peak price in 2011. This is followed closely by Margaux 2011 closing the gap on its peak price from 2011.
It’s interesting to note that Mouton Rothschild 2002 is just 0.6% off its peak price six years ago. Trends seem to show that it could have a second spurt of growth after it has hit it’s peak of 2011. This would be the best time to invest in the Mouton Rothschild 2002 if you haven’t have any in your portfolio especially when it’s on the verge of hitting its peak price.
As the fine wine market remains in it’s upswing momentum, we will expect to see more price increases in our first growths.