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We are seeing a lot of volatility in the stock market, and the same applies to the wine market. There was another small gain in the wine market this month but what I have seen behind the scenes is turbulence in market activity. One week, we have a flurry of merchants chasing us for the stock, then another week it’s very quiet. The volatile political situation is concerning many people across the globe.
With the USA going through impeachment inquiries, the E.U on the verge of losing one of its biggest members, with political resistance for leave or remain in the UK. And of course Hong Kong – One of the most liberal countries in Asia are having full-scale riots in the streets for several months in defiance of China.
There is certainly a lot to keep the media happy, but this doesn’t bode well for the economy. Uncertainty does two things, it creates volatility and it creates fear. When there is fear, there is a retraction in investment and this is what we have seen in the last month. In August the Dow Jones dropped from 27,200 to 26,700 points, it rallied then dropped again a week later, then another surge back up to 27,500. Only a few days ago it dropped again to 26,000 points. Day traders are having a field day, but it’s likely there are a lot of losers in the stock market in the last few months.
The bookkeepers are giving the same 16 to 1 odds on Hilary Clinton winning the 2020 U.S presidential election as there being another Brexit referendum before 2020. Both look unlikely but it is anybody’s guess how the UK is going to exit the EU in the upcoming weeks. The new plan laid out by the government is already getting pushed back from the usual faces of Labour and the SNP in parliament. As the arguments drag on, the UK is dragged further down and the GBP is down against the Euro to 1.120 from 1.129 since yesterday.
Buying wine in GBP while the pound is struggling makes sense to me.
If you are a seller, Look for a wine in your portfolio that has a satisfactory return and is over 6 years in age, be prepared to go lower than the current bid by 5% if its a Bordeaux and 10% if it’s a Rhone Valley or a Champagne. Then buy into a younger vintage. Remember our recommendations are negotiated for you before you see them, which means you can often buy in lower than the market price to offset the difference between the price you adjusted to sell. While at the same time giving yourself the opportunity for quicker and more exponential growth.
If you are a buyer, I am looking for vintages between 2014 and 2018 since the en primeur campaigns have not been selling as well and my research proved the second and third year of most en primeur campaigns in the last 5 years has been more successful. Negociants are right now very willing to offer discounts on new vintages to maintain consistent revenues. Look out for my next recommendation.
All the indicators are pointing to a potential boom in the fine wine market, this is the time to invest big in wine.
See below the winners and losers for January versus December.
Domaine de la Janasse Chateauneuf-du-Pape 2010
Armand de Brignac Ace of Spades Rose, Champagne
Below are the five, top and bottom movers compared to the previous month. Over 100 wines are valued each month. The wines valued are ALL OUR recommendations from the last fifteen years.
The new prices, are reflected in your online portfolio every month.
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